Your Digital Media Has Never Looked So Good

 
hn333
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Hulu Fears Netflix

Tue Nov 16, 2010 5:56 pm

It doesn't look very good for Hulu in the near future.


And many in the industry are convinced that Hulu will eventually break up. “I think both will happen,” said Andrea Kerr Redniss, vp, group director at Moxie Interactive. “I think they’ll have the IPO and I think it will collapse.”


Yet Hulu is still tainted by “very real competition between its network partners and Hulu’s sales staff,” said Williams. “You still end up spending a great deal of time in sales meetings discussing that and not strategy.”

Which points to the inherent tension and fragility of the joint venture, something many have speculated will lead to its undoing. Some are certain that Comcast, once it takes hold of NBCU, will pull the network out of Hulu—IPO or not—since the free nature of Hulu is in opposition to cable’s efforts to prevent cord cutting. “You don’t want to win the battle and lose the war,” said one insider. Hulu may simply have outlived its usefulness to the networks, which are increasingly able to monetize video on their own sites while pulling in complementary revenue from companies like Netflix. “Hulu may have become a nice experiment that was too successful for its own good,” said Patterson.




http://www.mediaweek.com/mw/content_dis ... 9f9c037520
 
tobarefeet
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Re: Hulu Fears Netflix

Tue Nov 16, 2010 6:54 pm

Hulu is the non-napster napster if you get what I mean. New kid on the block playing with other peoples toys... until the other people decided they didnt want to let them play with the toys anymore. I think the tv nets have seen the light and realized that they can control their own business models. I think 3 yrs from now Netflix will be the Amazon of this niche. Hulu will be in the dustbin of formerly cool internet sites. Like AOL.
 
devil.punchbowl
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Re: Hulu Fears Netflix

Tue Nov 16, 2010 7:01 pm

Networks will be networks. Hulu won't be going very far. They will naturally want to restrict too much. As that is how networks work. It's big buzz now, but folks will spend more money and learn the hard way.
 
mkiker2089
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Re: Hulu Fears Netflix

Tue Nov 16, 2010 7:02 pm

I don't see it. Hulu is TV where TV hasn't reached. The networks get ad revenue for their shows and then more ad revenue for the shows on Hulu.

If anything I see things getting better for Hulu. They are getting more and more content everyday.

Actually when you dig deeper you see the faulty logic behind this article. It's all fueled by one thing, Netflix paid a fortune for broadcast delay rights of Saturday Night Live. One show, and not a top tier one at that. Compound that with the fact that Comcast is extending olive branches in over areas as well in order to smooth FCC and FTC issues.

In the future I think you will still have the Amazon business model but it will be cheaper and only on new release movies or high profile shows. The Netflix model will sustain for catalog items and Hulu will still be there for TV delay rights.

The one change I expect is to see more release window issues. One think the studios don't like is that if they allow Netflix (or hulu) to stream something that equates free ownership to many consumers. I expect them to counter this with some sort of either time restrictions or perhaps special extended content that is only for purchase.
-Marshall-

Nun sacciu, nun vidi, nun ceru e si ceru durmiv.
I know nothing, I see nothing, I wasn't there,
and if I was there, I was asleep.
 
mkiker2089
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Re: Hulu Fears Netflix

Tue Nov 16, 2010 7:09 pm

devil.punchbowl wrote:
Networks will be networks. Hulu won't be going very far. They will naturally want to restrict too much. As that is how networks work. It's big buzz now, but folks will spend more money and learn the hard way.


That's the thing though. Networks can't be "networks" anymore. They are literally going bankrupt trying to maintain the status quo. There is just too much competition to ignore. The ones you hear complaining about Hulu aren't the networks, it's the providers. Sure DirecTv hates Hulu. Even though it's OTA content it's still another source, that DirecTv doesn't control. The pillar crashing down is an obsolete system. Hulu is a new support beam for the networks.

Hulu, like I said above, gives ad revenue back to the network. Revenue they have already lost to competition, piracy, and lost consumer interest.
-Marshall-

Nun sacciu, nun vidi, nun ceru e si ceru durmiv.
I know nothing, I see nothing, I wasn't there,
and if I was there, I was asleep.
 
devil.punchbowl
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Re: Hulu Fears Netflix

Tue Nov 16, 2010 7:15 pm

We will see. Only time will tell.......
 
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crassh76
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Re: Hulu Fears Netflix

Tue Nov 16, 2010 7:37 pm

devil.punchbowl wrote:
We will see. Only time will tell.......



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hn333
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Re: Hulu Fears Netflix

Tue Nov 16, 2010 8:28 pm

Hulu is a dead man!
 
SandboxManager
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Re: Hulu Fears Netflix

Tue Nov 16, 2010 9:05 pm

It is a simple game in the end; Content Owners rule, Content Providers follow...
 
Heyitsrick
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Re: Hulu Fears Netflix

Tue Nov 16, 2010 9:42 pm

Um, since the networks actually control who gets their content, and since the networks OWN a majority stake in Hulu, where is this "Hulu" will be gone stuff coming from? The logic escapes me. If anything, they could restrict any/all content from shows they own from any other venue --including Netflix. Now unless people are saying that the individual investing networks will decide to go separate ways, I'm not getting the argument. If it's a matter of content that's outside of network ownership/control, that could be another matter, of course. But any owned programming is really theirs to dole out, or not dole out.
 
mkiker2089
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Re: Hulu Fears Netflix

Tue Nov 16, 2010 10:12 pm

Heyitsrick wrote:
Um, since the networks actually control who gets their content, and since the networks OWN a majority stake in Hulu, where is this "Hulu" will be gone stuff coming from? The logic escapes me. If anything, they could restrict any/all content from shows they own from any other venue --including Netflix. Now unless people are saying that the individual investing networks will decide to go separate ways, I'm not getting the argument. If it's a matter of content that's outside of network ownership/control, that could be another matter, of course. But any owned programming is really theirs to dole out, or not dole out.


It's coming from the same people who said Netflix would be gone in a year, that Blockbuster was a sure bet, and that Microsoft would buy Wal-Mart. Analysts. It must be nice to sit in an office all day and get paid to day dream.

I think in a year fast food will be gone and people will be converted to photo synthesis. Women will compete over who has the brightest green complexion.
-Marshall-

Nun sacciu, nun vidi, nun ceru e si ceru durmiv.
I know nothing, I see nothing, I wasn't there,
and if I was there, I was asleep.
 
hn333
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Re: Hulu Fears Netflix

Tue Nov 16, 2010 10:16 pm

mkiker2089 wrote:
Heyitsrick wrote:
Um, since the networks actually control who gets their content, and since the networks OWN a majority stake in Hulu, where is this "Hulu" will be gone stuff coming from? The logic escapes me. If anything, they could restrict any/all content from shows they own from any other venue --including Netflix. Now unless people are saying that the individual investing networks will decide to go separate ways, I'm not getting the argument. If it's a matter of content that's outside of network ownership/control, that could be another matter, of course. But any owned programming is really theirs to dole out, or not dole out.


It's coming from the same people who said Netflix would be gone in a year, that Blockbuster was a sure bet, and that Microsoft would buy Wal-Mart. Analysts. It must be nice to sit in an office all day and get paid to day dream.

I think in a year fast food will be gone and people will be converted to photo synthesis. Women will compete over who has the brightest green complexion.


Did you read the whole article? Comcast wants Hulu gone. It's a done deal.
 
mkiker2089
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Re: Hulu Fears Netflix

Tue Nov 16, 2010 10:57 pm

hn333 wrote:

Did you read the whole article? Comcast wants Hulu gone. It's a done deal.


That article was written by an analyst with no real inside information. As I said before it all stems from one line said by an un-named Hulu exec over NBC-U allowing Netflix ONE shows right. Let me repeat ONE show.

Re-read the article. Not only are there no confirmed sources, the word Comcast wasn't mentioned at all. As a matter of fact Comcast wasn't even directly involved in the Saturday Night Live issue.

We could then further speculate as to why Netflix got the rights even. Netflix can use it as a poster child of the newest content which is more valuable than what that content is. NBC has nothing to lose since the shows ratings have been in a continual spiral down for years. Basically the only thing Hulu has lost here is a little street cred.

When Comcast becomes a part owner of Hulu we'll see what happens but even then Comcast would only be 1/3 owner at best.

Random speculation but I would see it more likely that if Comcast did anything they'd tie Hulu into a tiered cable package. Part of their Xfinity is a similar program. If they could get all of Hulu's programing on it then it would be a nice feather in their cap. I'd dread that because being on Time Warner I'd probably lose most of Hulu. That's just me talking out of my hat though. I still don't see Disney/ABC and FOX agreeing to any of it. They are the major content owners right now anyway. Like Heyitsrick said, the last word is the content owner.

Disney is big, Fox is bigger.

edit-

just wanted to ad that I don't think either of us will change our mind. I hope Hulu succeeds and I think the model is sound. We'll just have to wait and see.
-Marshall-

Nun sacciu, nun vidi, nun ceru e si ceru durmiv.
I know nothing, I see nothing, I wasn't there,
and if I was there, I was asleep.
 
Chuck_IV
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Re: Hulu Fears Netflix

Wed Nov 17, 2010 5:43 am

Until the next generation of suits take the helm, from the current living in the past suits, this "resistence" will continue. They can fight progress, but they cannot stop it. You would think they would have learned this from prior fights and even looking at the music industry.

Streaming IS the future. One of these days, a light bulb :idea: will go on and realize that there is a LOT of money to be made here and that streaming will give them more control over how the content is viewed than they ever had with traditional TV.
 
BoloMKXXVIII
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Re: Hulu Fears Netflix

Wed Nov 17, 2010 6:05 am

No matter what happens it is going to get messy. For some reason old media just can't seem to learn new tricks. Look at the music industry and the newspaper industry. If the music industry had imbraced digital distribution there would never have been an i-tunes store. They would have cut their costs and increased sales by making it easier to buy content (assuming a quality service). TV is no different. The content owners and providers are fighting every inch of the way on the way to a new distribution model. The first to embrace the new model will make a killing. The last will disappear or become marginalized. It has happened over and over yet nobody seems to learn. My only hope is that new content providers are created that embrace the new model. In a very small way this has already happened. Look at Revision3 and CNET. It is happening first with tech shows but eventually it will spread. What happens when Google or Apple starts producing content to sell through their existing distribution channels? Don't think it isn't going to happen. What do you think would happen if Google bought the rights to Firefly and started selling new episodes to watch through a Youtube+ channel? OK, Firefly would probably be too expensive to start out with, but you get the idea. Apple could do the same thing. I would love to see Netflix start creating their own content but I think that would make negotiations with the other content providers too difficult. The future is coming and those with the right vision will make a ton of money. The rest will be relagated to history.
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